![]() ![]() “It is here that freedom fights against the world of tyranny,” Poland’s prime minister wrote on Facebook after arriving in Kyiv by train. Zelensky urged other leaders to do the same. Three European leaders visited Ukraine yesterday, as Russian bombardments intensified. “The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize.” State of the WarĪs Russia struggles to capture major cities, it has intensified its assaults on civilian areas, including in Kyiv. Ukraine’s demise would be so damaging - both for Ukrainians and for the state of democracy - that its allies have good reason to search for alternatives.Ī less pessimistic view: “Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine,” Francis Fukuyama writes in American Purpose. But unlikely is not the same thing as impossible. Russia continues to bombard civilian areas and claims it now controls the entire Kherson region, bordering Crimea in southern Ukraine. Thomas Friedman, the Times columnist, has laid out the outlines of a possible deal in which Russia acquires a portion of eastern Ukraine where fighting has been going on for years Ukraine promises not to join NATO (as Zelensky has already hinted) and Russia pays compensation for the damage it has done. Other potential deals are more plausible. Some peace deals would probably be unacceptable to Ukraine - say, a rump state in the western part of the country that does not include Kyiv. Biden is also planning to announce an additional $800 million in military aid to Ukraine. The White House announced yesterday that President Biden would attend an impromptu NATO meeting next week in Brussels, where leaders are likely to discuss both economic sanctions on Russia and weapons assistance for Ukraine. “We know that Putin relies on people close to him to hide his money,” Tom Keatinge, a financial crime expert, told The Times. The oligarchs are among the few Russians who might have some sway over Putin. “But just as 9/11 forced world leaders to get serious about terrorist money,” Matt and Jane write, “the recent invasion of Ukraine could be a turning point on tackling illicit Russian wealth.” The measures imposed after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 proved to be ineffectual, as our colleagues Matt Apuzzo and Jane Bradley explain in a new investigative story. and its allies are going after Russian oligarchs with a new seriousness. The ruble has fallen in value, raising the cost of many items.Ĭrucially, the U.S. Russian consumers will no longer be able to use Mastercard or Visa, buy Coke or Pepsi and shop at McDonald’s, Starbucks or Uniqlo. ![]() ![]() Russian companies will struggle to import some goods and technologies. Russian banks will have a harder time lending money. The sanctions on Russia are some of the most aggressive ever levied, with the potential to stoke public unhappiness. One key is connecting them to clearly defined goals. In the 20th century, sanctions achieved at least part of their aim about one-third of the time, according to Nicholas Mulder, a Cornell University historian. Historically, economic sanctions have often failed to change the behavior of the country that they targeted. “This just feeds into this mentality that Russia is always under siege, its leaders are always under siege, people always want regime change in Russia.” “There’s loose talk by people now about, well, this will only end if Putin disappears,” Fiona Hill, the Russia expert and former White House official, told our colleague Ezra Klein. And if Putin’s ouster is the goal, the chances of success become even smaller. But ending the war in Ukraine - and allowing Ukraine to survive as a nation - does not require regime change in Russia. and European officials would like to see Putin forced from power. and Europe, Putin has used misinformation to influence elections.įor all these reasons, many U.S. His regime has murdered journalists, human rights activists and political opponents. He annexed the Crimean peninsula and abused Chechnya and Syria. Putin has been a destructive force in the world for much of his two decades in power. “Then again, he may now be appreciating the huge costs he will pay for any such conquest, and be open to settling for lesser objectives.” 1. Putin “probably wants all of Ukraine,” Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution has written.
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